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US Bond Futures: A TrendFollowing Nightmare

Using my Choppy Market Indicator (10 period) smoothed by a 10 period simple average we were able to eliminate some of the congestion trades. Looks good on this chart but always be aware of what it does historically. This is a form of curve fitting. It’s only worthwhile if it helps the Big Picture. The positive aspect is that it keeps you out of trades that may eventually chop you up but at the same time trends must start somewhere and a really good trend’s genesis is usually a trading range.